Last week, the House passed a defense bill that included both an absurd $895 billion for the military-industrial complex and a provision that will automatically register men ages 18-26 in the selective service. Selective service registration is currently voluntary, although men who fail to register may face $250,000 fines or 5 years in prison (yet there have only been 14 convictions for such non-registration since 1986). They may also be denied federal or local government jobs, or state-based student loans.
The last draft occurred in 1973 during the Vietnam War, and resulted in extreme civil unrest in the US. In 1975, President Gerald Ford removed men’s responsibility to register for the draft, but 5 years later President Jimmy Carter reinstated the requirement in a panic over the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan.
The recent bill that passed the House has kicked up a storm of controversy, along with the Senate Armed Services Committee’s proposal that women also be required to register for the selective service.
The bill and the proposal to require women to register with the selective service have caused many Americans to wonder why these changes are happening now. Note that the proposal was only an item discussed in the SASC, not a bill presented to Congress.
One factor for why the House is moving forward with this legislation at this time is that voluntary enlistment in the army has dropped by 35% in the past 10 years, from 58,000 in 2013 to 37,700 in 2023. This decline has resulted in all branches of the military failing to meet recruitment quotas in recent times. Currently, the number of women enlisting each year has been holding steady at about 10,000.
A large number of young Americans don’t even meet the fitness, educational, and mental health standards for recruitment. It is perhaps for this reason that the think tank Center for a New American Security (CNAS) proposed in a recent report that the military relax its standards on these three factors to help met recruiting goals.
But we should circle back to the original question of whether there are further motives for changing the draft laws and proposing amendments to draft women. It is not impossible that the US government is considering what conflicts they would like to involve Americans in in the future and taking steps to ensure the supply of soldiers is sufficient.
Despite calls from some members of Congress, US troops have not been shipped to Ukraine to fight for NATO against Russia. However, there are US military personnel performing inspections in the country, and the BBC reported on a leak showing US special forces in Ukraine a year ago.
With the war in Ukraine likely drawing to a close, if there did happen to be a draft, the US would more likely send its troops to aid Israel in some way, or send them to a war with China. What’s that, you say? There is not currently a war between the US and China? The military-industrial complex is desperate for it to happen and will do anything to bring it into being. Raytheon’s shareholders need their bonuses!
If the US did try to bring back the draft, I think this would unleash a firestorm across the country, especially if women were drafted. This spring, a wave of protests against the genocide of Palestinians rocked the Establishment. I do not believe they thought that young people were capable of sustaining such a protest.
Now, imagine the protests if these individuals were told that they were going to be shipped off to fight on the Israeli side. I think the ferocity of the protests would multiply several times if the stakes became far more personal.
Furthermore, the parents of young people would get involved in the protests. Many modern parents devote more than two decades to trying to ensure the success of a kid. Few parents would let the government send their kid off to die in a war that the US has created or is funding.
Although I oppose the draft on the grounds that a government that does not represent its people cannot ask for their lives, I think that people would be more likely to pay attention to foreign policy both if the draft returned for men and if women were also drafted, and the protests against the draft would be even more widespread. In the end, this increased opposition would be beneficial to steering the US away from hawkish foreign policy.
People are accustomed to the idea of men fighting and being drafted, but I think that many in the country violently oppose the idea of the same thing happening to women. This opposition would make it far more difficult for the government to carry out its plans for sustaining wars abroad.
Interestingly, the magazine Military Times recently published an article talking about how “social media messaging could amplify perceptions of inequity or perpetuate disinformation from adversaries.”
According to the article: “A viral video of a pop star ripping up a draft notice, or a social media allegation that a local draft board is racist, for example, could quickly turn the tide of public opinion against drafting authorities.”
Yet the article continues to say that, “enlisting well-known sports figures or celebrities to promote responding to the draft as a civic duty could help the Defense Department and the Selective Service get in front of these obstacles.” Hmm, could we be seeing a preview of propaganda strategies in the future?
Yet at this point, we have gone into the realm of speculation, as the draft obviously hasn’t been used for recruitment yet. But I will engage in a little speculation in this blog at the risk of being proven wrong in the future. And if the draft does end up being reinstated, expect protests across the nation that this spring’s demonstrations were only a small sample of.
